The Bottom Billion - Paul Collier (4 of 5 Templates for Recovery)

Paul Collier published The Bottom Billion in 2007 as an attempt to raise awareness regarding the one billion people living in poverty. Many of those suffering are currently living in failed states, most of which are in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the first half of his book, Collier outlines the causes of this poverty and in the second half describes what can be done about it. He is a firm believer that reviving a failed state requires the support of the local government and citizens, though policy changes by the developed nations around the globe can make this transition easier.

The four traps that plague the bottom billion are military conflict, abundant natural resources, being landlocked with bad neighbors and corrupt governance. Not all failed states experience all four traps. Some failed states are afflicted by one. The probability of failure however, increases as each trap is added. These traps do not operate independently. Corrupt government for example often leads to civil war.

Approximately 73% of the bottom billion have recently been through a civil war or are still in one. Civil war destroys the economy, drains national resources, and kills the workforce. Investors are wary of pumping resources into nations when conditions are unstable. Abundant natural resources such as oil distract small governments from developing their economies. They believe that they can subsist wholly on one export. Much of the revenue from exports is pocketed by corrupt leaders, leaving citizens to suffer. Have access to seaports also causes problems. Being landlocked means that a country has to depend on the infrastructure of its neighbors. If those neighbors are engaged in civil war, exporting can be anywhere from difficult to impossible.

Collier is quite convinced that developed nations should not be content to let the bottom billion suffer. In his book he outlines several reasons why developed nations should help to pull these nations out of chaos. According to his calculations, the cost of a failed state from meltdown to recovery is approximately $100 billion. Costs are allocated to the country itself, its neighbors and the global marketplace. Preventing a state from falling apart or helping it to recover more quickly can reduce these costs.

While a state is in ruins, its conditions can spill over into other nations in the forms of epidemics, terrorism and drugs. He cites Somalia as an example of how these effects can be felt around the world. Somalia was one of the last states affected by small pox. The disease was eliminated shortly before the Somalia meltdown. Collier believes that if the meltdown had occurred any earlier, small pox might have made a turnaround. Global transportation makes the possibility of the outbreak of such diseases much more likely. Civil war also leads to the spread of disease. In times of conflict, occurrences of rape skyrocket. STDs such as HIV/AIDS, syphilis and other deadly diseases spread like wildfire. Such outbreaks often jump borders affecting other failed states as well as developed nations.

Many young men have fled Somalia for developed nations. Once there, they have found themselves unable to integrate into the local culture and economy and have become frustrated. During 2005 alone, young men from Somalia were responsible for both attempting to blow up a commuter train and murdering a policewoman in a bank robbery in London. Collier supports President Bush’s claim that neglecting the war against terrorism abroad, means dealing with it at home.

Failed states often do not have a functioning police force or economy. A failing economy leads to high levels of unemployment. As members of the bottom billion become more desperate they turn to illegal means of generating income. Without a functioning police force in these failed states, the production of illegal drugs increases. Because few people within the state have money to purchase the drugs, many are exported to developing nations.

Contrary to the belief of Zambisa Moyo, Collier believes that aid has produced positive effects in failed states. Aid from developed nations has been the difference between stagnation and severe cumulative decline. Aid has meant an average increase in GDP of 1%. This has offset the average decrease in GDP of failed states of -1%. On a more personal level aid has meant the difference between life and death to millions of suffering people. He warns however, that the efficiency of aid can be increased significantly. Tight control of resources can prevent corrupt governments from redirecting aid away from the people. Clear benchmarks for contract renewal can be instituted to give governments direction on how to allocate resources. Positive growth can help to counteract the frustration that produces conflict. Controlling the revenue streams more closely would also dissuade potential coups that seek to take control of foreign aid.